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PrintAccording to UBS the weak output posted by China's leading steel province, Hebei, is beginning to indicate a declining market overall rather than the shutdowns ordered to guarantee air quality for the Beijing Olympics.
Hebei cut crude output by 1.2 million tonnes in August, contributing 50% of China's total production loss. In September, Hebei produced 0.7 million tonnes less, which accounted for 25% of the country's total reduction. We believe this indicates that the Olympics related shutdown has been replaced by a nation-wide supply curtailment.
UBS estimates that China's finished steel output could decline 11%MoM in October. Until the de stocking of high cost based products and raw materials at large mills is completed, steel prices will likely remain under pressure. Meanwhile, we see some support from long products, which have already gone through this process.
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