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中國(guó)鐵合金網(wǎng)訊：美國(guó)各大銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）在今年大幅收縮后，要到2022年才能達(dá)到疫情以前的水平。
美國(guó)花旗銀行（Citi）董事總經(jīng)理凱瑟琳•曼恩（Catherine Mann）今天代表美國(guó)銀行家協(xié)會(huì)美國(guó)銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢(xún)委員會(huì)發(fā)表了一份展望報(bào)告，她說(shuō)：“到2020年底，我們?nèi)詿o(wú)法從第二季度的深度下滑中復(fù)蘇。”。
該委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年將下降5.7%，明年將增長(zhǎng)4.5%。該委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)GDP最快將于2022年第二季度恢復(fù)到2020年前的水平。預(yù)計(jì)年底失業(yè)率將在10%左右，而第二季度預(yù)計(jì)為16%。
曼恩說(shuō)：“我們看到的GDP已經(jīng)夠糟糕了，但消費(fèi)和投資情況更糟。”消費(fèi)者信心維持低位，拖累了占美國(guó)GDP70%的這類(lèi)支出。“消費(fèi)者對(duì)工作保障和薪酬不確定，消費(fèi)支出可能在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)受到限制。”
未來(lái)幾個(gè)月的消費(fèi)者行為仍不可預(yù)測(cè)，曼恩想知道的是，“需要多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能讓大多數(shù)人感到足夠安全、逛商店、餐館和電影院？”
曼恩說(shuō)，預(yù)計(jì)企業(yè)投資也將復(fù)蘇緩慢，并指出“企業(yè)將處于‘觀望’模式，拖累消費(fèi)者。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，盡管消費(fèi)者支出有望開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇，但企業(yè)投資在第三季度仍將繼續(xù)下降，這有助于推動(dòng)GDP在這三個(gè)月內(nèi)進(jìn)入正增長(zhǎng)區(qū)間。
內(nèi)容來(lái)源：翻譯自Argusmedia
原文內(nèi)容：US economic recovery expected to take 2 years
US gross domestic product (GDP) will not reach its pre-pandemic levels until well into 2022 following a sharp contraction this year, economists with major US banks said.
"At the end of 2020, we still will have not recovered from the depth of the second quarter decline," US bank Citi managing director Catherine Mann said, presenting an outlook on behalf of the American Bankers Association's economic advisory committee of chief economists at US banks.
The committee expects the US economy to decline by 5.7pc this year, followed by a 4.5pc increase next year. The committee expects US GDP to recover to pre-2020 levels no sooner than the second quarter of 2022. The unemployment rate is projected to be around 10pc at the end of the year, from a projected second quarter high of 16pc.
"What we see on GDP is bad enough, but the situation for consumption and investment is worse," Mann said. Consumer confidence remains slow, dragging spending in the category that accounts for 70pc of US GDP. "Consumer spending may be constrained for some time, with consumers unsure about job security and pay."
And consumer behavior during coming months remains unpredictable: "How long will it take before most people feel safe enough to visit stores, restaurants and movie theaters?" Mann wondered.
Business investment is also expected to recover slowly, Mann said, noting that "businesses will be in a ‘wait and see' mode, trailing the consumer."
The economists' committee expects business investment to continue declining in the third quarter even though consumer spending is expected to begin to recover, helping to push GDP growth into positive territory in that three-month period.
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